In 2006 China's electronic components trade development advantageous factors are: first, in 2006 the domestic economy will maintain rapid growth of foreign trade, continue to stabilize development to offer good condition; secondly, after years of investment and development, China's export product structure upgrading, export competitiveness improved significantly; in addition, by domestic demand cooling effect of investment in recent years formation of the production capacity of the domestic market excess supply, forcing enterprises to expand exports. According to the survey, the second half of 2005 the basic balance of supply and demand of goods accounted for only 28.7%, while the pile up in excess of requirement of goods accounted for 71.3%, of which 73 kinds of household appliances 87.7% goods pile up in excess of requirement, only accelerated export can effectively alleviate domestic excessive competition pattern. Unfavorable factors are: (1 ) in 2005 101900000000 dollar surplus scale will become our country foreign trade sustainable development problems, either the international or domestic will take measures to exert an influence ; (2 ) the mechanism of RMB exchange rate adjustment and the appreciation of the renminbi in 2006 will be the impact of import and export of important factors.
The above factors, in 2006 the development of China's foreign trade environment basically is beneficial, but constraints increase, expected full-year 2006 electronic components of foreign trade import and export will increase about 20%.
(one) is worth to pay close attention to four key products
1, chip components
2005, suffer the effect of international economy environment, our country chip components of the import and export trade active, capacitor exit forehead is 1573000000 dollar, grow 15% compared to the same period. The ceramic chip capacitor exit forehead is 553000000 dollar, grow 23.69% compared to the same period ; tantalum electrolytic capacitor exit forehead is 147000000 dollar, amplitude is 70.46% Gao Da; chip resistor exit forehead is 157000000 dollar, grow 25.51% compared to the same period. The first quarter of 2006 resistor market prices of basic and in 2005 fourth quarter. Japanese firms have gradually stop production more than 0603 sizes of products or exit resistance area, at present 0402 dimensional sheet resistance has become the main market demand, and exclusion, is still in the state of supply tight. The future of chip component mainstream products will be composed of 0603 to 0402 or even 0201 transition, components of the chip demand will be sustained growth.
With the new mobile phone function is ceaseless grow in quantity, mobile phone and consumer electronics, the computer will be a future two big trends, mobile phone will be less than PC development prospects of mobile phone will replace PC to become the technical competition a new stage. To cope with these changes, the miniaturization (0201 dimensions), integration, high frequency, Gao Rong electronic components will be widely used, and with the mount density increases, the use of chip component will substantially increase the volume, by an average of more than 300 only increased to more than 600 only, chip inductors dosage will increase one times reached more than 60, which will give the electronic component suppliers to bring new business opportunities. Global chip resistor is expected in 2006 will grow 10%, multilayer ceramic capacitor and the growth of 12%-18%.
2, printed circuit board
Following the 2003 PCB market recovery since, PCB industry continued strong growth. In 2005, 340 PCB production enterprise sales revenue of 76212000000 yuan, an increase of 39.01%; realize a total profit of 5465000000 yuan, an increase of 67.89% Gao Da; exports 5338000000 dollar, grow 39.72% compared to the same period. Demand mainly from communication market continued demand for PCB. Area of our country Taiwan the 30 largest producer of PCB has 70% enterprises have set up factories in the mainland, and the expansion of production capacity, therefore, the 2005 PCB especially flexible PCB output growth is rapidder, such as the production of flexible PCB enterprises Changzhou cosmos Star Electronic Manufacturing Company Limited, Suzhou Industrial Electronics Company Limited, Shenzhen City ZTE Xinyu soft circuit Company Limited, Xiamen Hongxin electronic technology limited company and other enterprises in 2005 the output value increase in more than 200%. Is expected in 2006, in 2007 China's PCB value average growth rate will exceed 25%.
3, the connector
In 2005, China electrical connector element output value of 51986000000 yuan, an increase of 23.37%; export volume of 2986000000 U.S. dollars, an increase of 39.06%, wherein the connector is a rapid upward trend, the export volume of 1389000000 U.S. dollars, in Gao Da 66.81%. Because our country Taiwan computer and a main connector manufacturers have moved to the mainland production, so the connector demand mainly from the PC market. The switching element, switch the export volume reached 630000000 U.S. dollars, compared with the previous year growth of 24.25%, a miniature switch and the touch switch is one of the fastest amplitude. The switching element in great demand from portable devices such as mobile phone, MP3 players and digital cameras and other market growth. As the communications products and GPS and entertainment system for applications such as growth, 2006 electric connectors manufacturing industry will continue to appear strong growth momentum, output growth will exceed 22%.
4, sensitive components and sensors
With the WLAN, Bluetooth and GPS product development, the thermistor demand will grow further. The popularity of mobile phone camera function, large numbers of camera, the CMOS sensor needs to be rapid growth.
In addition, mobile phone camera is from 300000 to one million pixels or pixel transition, 2006, mobile phone camera module will continue to the development of high-end. The 2000000 pixel and the 3000000 pixel autofocus module will once again on China's domestic mobile phone brand and module factory to bring grim challenge. The AF motor technology, such as stepper motor, voice coil motor, Piezzo, to Chinese manufacturer, is an insurmountable threshold.
In short, the electronic components industry has experienced for several consecutive years of high-speed growth period after 2005 entered a period of steady growth. 2005 electronic components industry can be said to be subdued, it also caters to the electronic components industry in the industrial chain of the most upstream characteristics. But this year the global electronic products consumption overall growth, so the electronic components industry day or" blossom of sesame ", in 2006 one quarter of market of electronic components will be significantly better than the first quarter of 2005, more in the four quarter of 2005 is expected to peak performance would only a small decline, throughout the year will be 20% of the rate of steady development.
(two ) the industrial background
In 2005 1, electronic element income benefits synchronous growth
2005, our country the influence of macroscopical economic situation, China's electronics industry continue to maintain rapid growth, but the increase over the same period in 2004 somewhat fall after a rise. Electronic components exports a situation to improve, will further promote the electronic components industry, electronic components trade deficit growth rate dropped significantly. Foreign capital enterprise expansion, private enterprises development of China electronic components industry economy continues to expand.
Sales income 468462000000 yuan
In the past, electronic components mainly to small and medium size enterprises, and is the main single products professional manufacturers. As a result of the global high-tech industry scale rapid expansion, while profits rapidly declined, making many smaller electronic components manufacturers begin to search new outlet, and vertical integration. Electronic machine manufacturers downward integration has become an inevitable trend. With more and more electronic components business to the upstream and downstream product extension, variety of electronic components production enterprises more and more. Table 1 listed enterprises are the main products were divided. Such as the Taiwan-funded enterprises international is the production of MLCC, but also the production of chip resistor, which is divided into resistance industry ; Guangdong Fenghua is classified as a comprehensive production enterprises ( see a table one).
In 2005, the export " Dikaigaozou" pull effect of 2005 electronic components industry growth rate in the two or three quarter by quarter increments, four quarter reached its peak ( see table two). Since the 2005 international mobile phone manufacturers of new models focus on the second half of the year a large number of goods, the four quarter of the year especially Chang Wang, the electronic components industry maintained a rapid speed of development.
According to the 3770 domestic electronic components manufacturers (not including the copper clad plate, aluminum foil and other upstream raw and auxiliary materials production enterprises ) survey, China's electronic components production company accumulative total achieves sales revenue 468462000000 yuan, grow 22.8% compared to the same period, but the annual sales revenue growth rate than the same period last year dropped 8.16 percentage points.
Sales revenue year-on-year growth of 2522 enterprises, 3770 enterprises of 66.9% ; sales revenue grew more than 50% enterprises and 763, accounting for 20.24% of the total number of the enterprise under investigation ; the sales income over 100000000 yuan of 954 enterprises, its sales revenue accounted for 82.94% of the total, the electronic components industry scale effect gradually.
Product sales income growth is rapidder industry are printed circuit boards, optical cable, electro-acoustic devices, connectors, control relays, the rose respectively 39.01%, 29.06%, 26.52%, 23.37%, 18.39%. Past Taiwan province of China is the world's printed circuit boards, connectors and other products one of the main production base, in recent years Taiwan province has 70% production moved to the mainland and to continue to expand production capacity, so in 2005, the 5 categories of products in spite of the copper price impact is bigger, but the rapid growth of foreign trade demand pull PCB, photoelectric cable, electro-acoustic devices, connectors and rapid development.
2, element industry profit status change
In 2005, despite the electronic components industry is raw material, fuel and transportation costs substantially increase the cost and improve the product price of certain negative effect, but through improved management, strengthen management, accelerate the circulation of electronic components business after the fourth quarter final sprint, finally achieved fruitful, income, benefits of double harvest (see table two). 3770 enterprises completed a total profit of 25347000000 yuan, an increase of 19.81%, but compared with the same period in 2004, a decrease of 19.04 percentage points. Total profits of high growth industry PCB, piezoelectric device, hybrid integrated circuit, electro-acoustic devices, optical cable, its rose respectively 67.89%, 45.62%, 44.6%, 33.89%, 32.39%. Hybrid integrated circuit in which the first half of 2005 profit total compared to the same period also showed a negative growth situation, the second half of the year mainly due to Shanghai Telefunken microelectronics company pull, the total profit of 236% year-on-year growth.
Total profit decline or a slight increase in the industry of electronic transformers, electronic ceramics and devices, magnetic materials and devices, batteries, micro motor, sensitive components and sensors. Investigate its reason, on one hand, the rising cost of raw materials, products and prices, two extrusion; on the other hand, these products exports in 2005 year-on-year growth rate did not exceed 10%, so by the foreign trade export strength sufficient to offset rising costs arising from the adverse effects, so the enterprise benefit to improve. Printed circuit board, photoelectric cable, electro-acoustic devices, connectors and other products, although the price has small to rise, but the increase is not raw material to large, at the same time as foreign trade exports large shipments greatly, will rise in the cost of buying.
3, civilian battalion economy is on the rise
The history of Chinese reforming and opening is told from some kind of meaning is actually China's non-public economic development history. In the initial stage of reforming and opening, communal economy of investment in fixed assets in the total social investment in the proportion of nine into the left and right sides, now just over half. From the GDP contribution degree, communal economy proportion is less than half. Electronic components in different ownership enterprises, state-owned enterprises, collective and joint venture sales revenue and accounts for the electronic components industry sales revenue was 5.48%, non-public economic enterprise sales revenue and is 442771000000 yuan, accounting for electronic components industry sales income 94.52%, the electronic components industry contribution has far exceeded the state, collective enterprises. Economy of blame state ownership in the electronic components industry is becoming more and more important, especially the rapid development of the private economy is becoming a major bright spot.
Although the foreign and Hong Kong and Macao Taiwan investment enterprises sales revenue and the entire industry in a larger proportion, is 309320000000 yuan, occupy 66% of the whole industry, but its taxes for a total of 2848000000 yuan, only accounts for 37.69% of the industry as a whole, far below the sales income proportion, and the taxes year-on-year growth fell sharply, while private enterprise whether it is sales revenue or tax Jin Jun rapid growth, growth rate is respectively 28.44%, 19.14%, and its contribution to society growing
However, because civilian battalion enterprise starts late, scope is little, and highly relevant system and policy restrict, did not achieve its development level. Foreign-funded enterprises in the unequal treatment of severely restricted the development of domestic enterprises. Therefore, we expect the government to give various economic compositions are a fair policy, market and service environment, the private enterprises can be in the same game regulation and other economy component enterprise develop fair competition, thus entered a new historical stage of development.
(three ) the overall situation prediction
In 2006, China electronic components industry and a few years ago growth will slow down, is expected to maintain 15% ~ 20% of steady growth. In 2007, China electronic components industry will follow the global semiconductor industry entered a new round of growth, growth is expected to more than 20%.
From the global semiconductor industry operation trends, according to macroscopical 2006 economy runs and downstream electronic market demand, global semiconductor market is overall demand will continue in 2005 second half of the year rise trend, to maintain steady growth. According to the semiconductor industry inventory levels, chip manufacturer, capacity utilization, industrial capital expenditures, as well as the upstream raw material prices judgment, 2006 global semiconductor market supply will remain moderate growth, supply slightly higher than demand, but will not appear serious and excess supply.
